By “evangelical odds” I mean....... [MORE]
http://www.drurywriting.com/keith/Election.08.1.htm
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14 comments:
James: Maybe we'll trade you a worn out bush for a worn out Blair?
I'm pulling for a McCain, Obama ticket in a newly formed, morally conservative but socially concerned party ... I'm up for names if anyone has one.
And with a guy who's name sounds Muslim maybe they will forget about us .. "Obama .... they can't be that bad"
I really like McCain but that is based mostly on Daily Show appearences which is how I form my opinions about US politics. Maybe I'm more American than I thought.
At the bottom of the democrat part, you mentioned Al Gore. I think he's interested in running again, but will probably be about equivalent to Kerry in terms of votegetting--especially among evangelicals.
On the republican side, I think Newt Gingrich is interested in running as well. Evangelicals would probably support him if he were the eventual candidate. But I think that he might have difficulty garnering support because of his battles with the Clinton White House, which was pretty much successful in its attempt to put the blame on Congress for "shutting down the government" during budget debates when Gingrich was Speaker of the House of Representatives. The press would lambast Gingrich if he were to run.
At the same time, a choice between Hillary and Newt in a general election might really prove interesting while polarizing supporters of the 2 sides.
Romney is certainly closest ideologically to the Christian Right voters. But theologically, he obviously has problems and it remains to be seen how they will warm up to him. It will be a big irony if Christian Rightists, many of whom say they really do not want to mix religion and politics, will refuse to vote for an ideological kinsman because of his private theological views. Huckabee would also appeal to some Christian Rightists, but others would be put off by his push for tax increases in his state and other "big government" type programs he's supported.
Of course, not all evangelical voters are economic conservatives (or social ones for that matter). On the Demoractic side, I would agree that Obama has the best rhetoric of all the Dems running towards Evangelical thinkers, but he is far more liberal than he comes across and, as you pointed out, he's inexperienced at the national level. The drive to see him run is mainly based off percieved charisma, likability, and the fact that he'd be a viable black candidate. McCain still has a lot of work to do to win back support of Republican Christian conservatives. The favorite of the Republican establishment may wind up being Guiliani. If you had a race between Guiliani and Obama (which I think is unlikely), it would be very interesting to see what Evangelicals would do. I would predict in such a case an almost even split.
Maybe Joe Braggin' Biden will also take anonther run? It would give him a chance to stroke his ego by giving him camera time to tell the nation how had had a plan for for almost everything but nobody listened to the old windbag. To evanglicals he is only a sideshow.
I agree with Pete that Newt Gingrich would be interested, and personally I think he would be the best candidate for the GOP; but he is not electible.
I do think that Giuliani will become more of a player that anyone of thinking right now, because the GOP wants to stay in the White House and he could potentially swing moderates and swing voters to vote for other Republicans in 08, and these legislators will get the higher Evangelical grade. Besides, I think he is the only Republican that can win in two years.
For the Democrats I think that Bill Richardson could make a big impact, but I don't know anything about what his Evangelical grade might be.
No matter what a strong evangelical will have a difficult time being elected to the presidency, just most governers or senators, the trend it to move closer to the middle.
I think Bill Frist is worthy of mention. And I think Rick Santorum might come into play as someone's running mate even though he lost his senate race (I even hear that McCain likes Santorum).
Here is what I see:
In reading Christianity Today, and other signaling publications among Evangelicals I see the collapse of the right end of the political spectrum's hold on evangelicals. An increasing number of evangelicals are abandoning the idea that we need to establish in law our own convictions. While abortion and homosexual activity are sinful acts the way most evangelicals read the Bible, so are divorce and "piling up treasure on earth." Why would we pick only a few sins to enshrine in secular law? The answer is--we want to commit these other sins ourselves.
The younger portion of the church believes it sin to refuse to care for the poor, or act on aids in Africa. On these things they depart from the Republicans so there will be a rejection of the Falwell-Robertson right as more young evangelicals follow Rob bell and other emerging Christians who refuse to be considered finger-wagging scolds by the world. That's how I see it here in upstate New Yorkwhere Catholics rule.
The previous post made me think that Rob Bell and Tony Compolo can be considered the new Pat Robertson and Jerry Fawell of the Left side of the politicized church. After all, I do think that Mr. Bell, Mr. Compolo, Christianity Today, and a variety of other evangelical mouth pieces have done a great job shifting votes from the GOP to the Democrats. Well played.
However, I don't think that it is correct to insinuate that Republicans (old or young) do not care about the poor or sick in this country or the world, just because they do not agree with the political plans and solutions that the Left has to offer. There is an ideological difference between the Evangelical Right and Left, and there are differing opinions as to deal with many issues, including, but not limited to poverty and international aid.
The two posts before me represent why I think Obama, if he chooses to run this early (he's still so young, it wouldn't hurt his chances to wait a bit), would walk away with the election. I love Aaron' idea, of having McCain and Obama run together. Now that's a party I'd like to see!
I have a hard time thinking Giuliani will win a place. Pro choice...pro homosexual rights (there goes a lot of the right)--really tough on the poor and downtrodden (left aren't going to love that either).
Al Gore could have much more influence on the election than what we would believe right now. He's gaining more notoriety as of late with his Global Warming campaign. Young voters seem to be drawn to him this time around, more than the last time he ran at least. Obama has praised Gore recently as well, linking arms with his "green" vision.
Edwards and Obama are teaming up to tackle Walmart, which seems to be a hot topic among business owners and middle class-lower class shoppers. The outcome of such debate could really spur an interesting polling year.
Obama 2008
Did you hear Warren had Obama and Brownback up to Saddleback over the weekend? He called them the representatives of compassionate conservativism in politics today.
Ron Paul
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